根據Smithers（數據研究機構）最近發布的一項研究，汽車行業可能會從銷售和服務車輛，轉變為”提供人員和貨物運輸解決方案”的出行行業。
The automotive industry likely will shift from selling and servicing vehicles to become a mobility industry that offers transportation solutions for people and goods, according to a study released recently by Smithers.
這份題為《自動駕駛汽車對輪胎的影響到2029年》的研究指出，電動化、自動駕駛汽車技術和共享移動性如何導致輪胎技術的發展，并重新定義汽車市場。
The study, titled "Impact of Autonomous Vehicles in Tires to 2029," notes how electrification, autonomous vehicle technology and shared mobility are leading to the evolution of tire technology and redefining the vehicle market.
然而，在全面自動駕駛技術被廣泛采用之前，還有一些重大的障礙需要克服。在2029年前，這些（自動駕駛技術的）汽車在新車銷量中所占比例仍將相對較小，在全球汽車保有量中所占比例甚至會更小。但是小型班車、送貨車和卡車車隊可能是例外。根據Smithers報告，到2029年，使用自動駕駛技術的車輛的輪胎數量也不會很大，并且主要會是OE胎。
There are, however, significant hurdles to overcome before full AVs can be widely adopted. These vehicles will make up a relatively small part of new vehicle sales, and an even smaller part of the global vehicle parc by 2029. Small shuttles, delivery vans and truck platooning are possible exceptions. In relation, the number of tires supplied for AV vehicles by 2029 will be small and predominately original equipment, according to the Smithers report.
到2029年，自動駕駛汽車使用的輪胎數量將達到3.89億，包括乘用車、輕型卡車、輕型商用車和卡車/巴士輪胎。這些輪胎的價值預計將超過470億美元，預計將占2029年轎車胎/輕卡胎/輕型商用車胎以及全鋼輪胎市場總量的15%左右。
By 2029, Smithers said, the number of tires for autonomous vehicles will reach 389 million, accounting for passenger cars, light trucks, light commercial vehicle and truck/bus tires. The value of these tires are expected to be more than $47 billion, and should account for about 15 percent of the predicted PC/LT/LCV + T&B tire market volume in 2029.
關于自動駕駛車輛用的輪胎類型 Tire types
Smithers進行了一項關于自動駕駛是否會需要使用高機動性輪胎的意見調查，如果選項為是的話，那么將會使用哪一種——缺氣保用或自密封輪胎。
Smithers conducted a survey of opinions on whether AVs will advance the use of extended mobility tires, and if so, which option—runflat or self sealing—will be used.
雖然非充氣輪胎不是必不可少的，但非充氣輪胎具有防刺穿性能，并具有較強的機動性和較少的維護。 Smithers指出，它們（非充氣輪胎）可能會更適合在城市環境中使用自動駕駛技術的車輛，尤其是自動出租車。
While not essential for AVs, non-pneumatic tires are puncture proof and offer extended mobility and less maintenance. They may benefit AVs used in urban environments, especially autonomous taxi fleets, noted Smithers.
但是，調查顯示，業內受訪者的觀點參差不齊。其中包括大量觀點認為，更謹慎地使用輪胎無疑將減少車輛故障并減少對車輛高機動性的需求。
However, the poll revealed mixed expectations from industry respondents, including the viewpoint from a significant number that more careful tire use by AVs will reduce failure and decrease the need for extended mobility solutions.
與此同時，通用汽車和米其林(Michelin)正計劃開始銷售一款配備無氣輪胎的電動汽車。其中的Uptis（輪胎）是由米其林(Tweel)開發的，預計將在2024年推出，隨后將推出完全自主的版本。
Meanwhile, a collaboration between GM and Michelin is planning to begin commercial sales of an electric car with an airless tire. Uptis, a development of Michelin's Tweel—is expected by 2024 and a fully autonomous version is slated to follow.
研究報告稱，如果這些研究開發取得成功，最終將對輪胎技術產生重大影響，包括材料、施工方法、設備和售后服務。
If successful, such moves eventually will have a major impact on tire technology, including materials, construction methods and equipment and after-sales service, according to the research report.
Source:ERJ
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